Donald Trump’s plan against drug cartels: Why is it dangerous for Mexico?

“I will designate the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. “We will do it immediately and unleash the full power of federal law enforcement, ICE and Border Patrol,” he said. trump during a forum of the ultraconservative non-profit organization Turning Point, in phoenixArizona.

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During his first government (2017-2021), Trump had already considered designating cartels as terrorist organizationsbut he gave up at the request of the then president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obradorwho agreed to cooperate on security matters.

trump He also said Sunday that during a telephone conversation he had with Sheinbaum In November, he was “very strong” when pointing out the problem of undocumented migration and the fentanyl trafficking.

“I was very hard on Mexico. I spoke with the new presidentwho is a charming and wonderful woman (…), but I told her: this cannot be done to our country, we are not going to take it anymore.”he declared.

In response to Trump’s announcement, Sheinbaum stated that on the issue of combating drug traffickingits relationship with the United States is based on cooperation and “it is not subordination.”

“We collaborate, we coordinate, we work together, but we will never subordinate ourselves. Mexico is a free, sovereign, independent country and we do not accept interference in our country. “It is collaboration, it is coordination, but it is not subordination,” Sheinbaum said during a public event in Mazatlán, Sinaloa, quoted by the EFE agency.

Yeah trump finally complies with what was announced, the appointment of the cartels as terrorist organizations would go to the United States Congress for approval. Once this process has been completed, those designated become part of a list that is managed by the State Department.

There are currently 68 groups included on the list of terrorist organizationsamong the best known are the Palestinian Islamist group Hamasthe Lebanese Hezbollahthe network Al Qaedahe ISISthe FARC Colombian and Peruvian Luminous Path.

The State Department highlights on its website the main effects of being designated a terrorist organization:

• Support our efforts to curb terrorist financing and encourage other nations to do the same.
• It stigmatizes and isolates internationally designated terrorist organizations.
• Discourages donations or contributions to, and financial transactions with, named organizations.
• Increases public awareness and knowledge about terrorist organizations.
• We signal to other governments our concern about the named organizations.

Fentanyl is responsible for about 70,000 overdose deaths a year

In the United States. Mexican cartels are at the forefront of the production, transportation and sale of drugs, whose raw materials are generally obtained in China. The Sinaloa Cartel, through its faction called Los Chapitos, and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) are accused of being the mafias that traffic the most fentanyl in the United States.

Unilateral attacks in Mexican territory

Jesus Garciaeditor at El Diario Nueva York and La Opinión, told The Commerce that the consequences for Mexico The possible designation of cartels as terrorist organizations will depend on the scope that the administration wants to give it. trump.

“If we make a comparison between transnational criminal organizations and foreign terrorist organizations, they basically have the same type of punishments, including sanctions for anyone who supports criminal or terrorist groups. But the biggest difference has to do with military actions, which can be unilateral or under coalition”Garcia said.

“In this case, The risk that would exist is that the United States implements some military action against Mexico unilaterally.as Trump has even pointed out during the campaign, when he said that he could use drones to launch attacks specifically in areas where they have drug cartel leaders located, or against drug production laboratories.”said the journalist.

García added that it is documented that this type of actions has also resulted in harm to the civilian population that has nothing to do with terrorist groups.

“It is the main risk. And since it is a unilateral action, it will basically be an invasion of Mexican sovereignty.something that the president has even highlighted Claudia Sheinbaumwho has indicated that he is against affecting the country’s sovereignty with this type of actions,” he remembered.

What the United States doesn’t do

What aspects of the fight against drug trafficking correspond directly to the United States and are they not taking action? García maintained that there are three fundamental aspects where no greater work is observed on the part of the US authorities.

“The first is arms traffickingwhich is essential because the drug cartels have this arms power thanks precisely to arms trafficking. “The United States did not have the crime of arms trafficking classified at the federal level, until it occurred in 2022 with the Safe Communities Act promoted by Democrats and which finally had support from some Republicans.”Garcia said.

He explained that based on this legislation, the Department of Justice began to implement a strategy against the arms trafficking. “However, it remains minimal, especially since the United States has a significant defense on weapons. Particularly Republicans defend weapons as an element of right in the country… in several states it is easy to access low and high caliber weapons.”

García noted that around 80% of the weapons in Mexico have been trafficked from the United States.

He detailed that Mexico has put the issue on the table, even with lawsuits that are open in the United States.

“In January you will have an interesting answer because the Supreme Court will determine if the companies that produce weapons and distribute them have some type of responsibility in this regard, and this could help Mexico even in the fight against drug trafficking”he said.

“Second is money laundering.which is also fundamental… The money from drug trafficking is laundered in the United States and returns to Mexico clean.”Garcia assured.

“It is something that the United States has been fighting against, because it is difficult to trace money, especially also because cryptocurrencies are widely used in part of organized crime, and that makes tracing difficult. “It is a complicated battle that the United States has not really known how to face.”indicated the journalist.

“Reducing the arms and economic power of the cartels are elements that the United States has to work more onprecisely because it is the market where drugs can be sold, distributed, and where weapons are produced and trafficked to Mexico.”he insisted.

The third element has to do with the distribution of drugs in the United States.which is often carried out by local mafias.

“Although the cartels produce the drugs and make sure to distribute them and send them to the United States and other countries, the United States does not assume responsibility for combating criminal organizations, which they do not call cartels, which ensure the distribution of this drug.” drugs in the country. “That drug is not sold like magic.”Garcia said.

“The United States is not attacking its groups to really focus on dismantling these drug distribution networks.. “If it does so, it could help in an important way in the fight against cartels and organized crime in general,” he pointed out.

A “soft invasion”

In July of this year, during an interview with Fox News, Trump talked about the possibility of attacking the cartels in Mexican territory because fentanyl and overdose deaths were hitting the United States. Earlier this month, the magazine Rolling Stone revealed that the Republican’s team was evaluating a “soft invasion” of its southern neighbor to assassinate mafia leaders through covert operations.

“To what extent should we invade Mexico?” declared a senior official on Trump’s transition team. “That is the question,” the magazine stated.

Rolling Stone said it spoke to six Republicans who have discussed the issue with Trump.

In addition, he mentioned that in the last four years, even among the most moderate circles of Republicans, support for the ideas of trump launch an attack against the cartels in Mexico.

Several of the nominees for the cabinet trumpincluding candidates for Secretary of Defense and State, have publicly supported the idea of ​​US military intervention in Mexico, Rolling Stone said.

In the case of the senator Marco Rubioproposed as Secretary of State, has supported the idea of ​​sending US troops to Mexico to combat drug cartels, but under the condition that “there is cooperation from the Mexican Government,” and that such operations be carried out “in coordination with the Mexican armed forces and police.”

A source told the magazine that the proposed intervention would be a “soft invasion”; That is to say, that US special forces, without a large deployment, would be sent covertly to assassinate the leaders of the cartels, something that the magnate would discuss in private.

The proposals also include drone attacks, air strikes against cartel infrastructure or drug laboratories, sending military trainers and “advisors” to Mexico, deploying extermination teams on Mexican soil, cyber warfare against drug traffickers and that US special forces carry out raids and kidnappings of notorious figures.

In some of the private conversations, including during this transition period, Trump has told people he trusts and some Republican lawmakers that he plans to tell the Mexican government that it must stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States within a certain period of time, or otherwise he will send the US army.