Does the incursion of Ukrainian troops into Russian territory represent a change in the course of the war?

The head of the Ukrainian army, Oleksandr Syrskyinformed the president on Thursday Volodymyr Zelensky on the progress of the operation and confirmed that there are already 82 Russian towns under Ukrainian control since August 6.

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Syrsky He also stated that In Kursk “a military administration has been created to maintain law and order and meet the priority needs of the population in the controlled territories.” He added that the administration will also be responsible for the army’s logistics.

He added that on Thursday, At some points, Ukrainian forces advanced between 0.5 and 1.5 kilometers.meaning that since the offensive began they have penetrated 35 kilometres into Russian territory. It should be noted that the border of the region Kursk with Ukraine It is 245 kilometers long.

Several Ukrainian media reported that a total of 102 Russian soldiers have been captured in Kursk They added that this is “the largest single capture of Russian forces ever achieved.”

For its part, Zelensky claimed that his forces took full control of the Russian city of Sudzhalocated in Kursk and 8 km from the border. This town of 5,500 inhabitants is the largest that Ukrainian forces have entered in this offensive, noted the AFP agency.

In Sudzha There is a measuring station for Russian natural gas flowing through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe.

On the Russian side, the acting governor of KurskAlexei Smirnov, ordered the evacuation of the region on Thursday Glushkovoabout 45 kilometers northwest of Sudzha, reported the AP agency.

Smirnov said that more than 120,000 residents of the region Kursk have been evacuated since August 6, when the Ukrainian incursion began.

Meanwhile, the Russian military said it had regained control of the town of Krupets. He added that he was “continuing to slow down” Ukrainian attacks on Kursk.

This is the first time since August 6 that the Russian army has announced the recapture of a town that was in Ukrainian hands.

Russia He also claimed to have inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces using aircraft, drones and artillery. This allowed him to “thwart the attempts of Ukrainian mobile groups to advance,” AFP reported.

For its part, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)based in the United States, said on Thursday that an opposition media outlet Russia reported on Wednesday that Russian forces will send recruits from Moscow, Leningrad, Kaliningrad, Sverdlovsk, Murmansk and Samara to Kurskwhich provoked a reaction from human rights activists and relatives who protest the use of these troops in active combat.

The ISW claimed that Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have slowed their advance on Kurskas Russian troops continue to try to stabilise the front line in the area, with the help of arriving reinforcements.

Furthermore, the ISW assured that Ukrainian operations in Kursk are generating tangible impacts on defense, logistics and security within RussiaHe cited satellite images collected by Maxar on August 12 showing a series of newly dug field fortifications, including trenches and anti-vehicle ditches, southwest of the town of Lgov.

Other satellite images released on August 13, which were collected between August 6 and 11, show the recent appearance of field fortifications near Highway 38K-024, south of Lgov.

These new fortifications are about 17 kilometers north of the farthest limit that Ukrainian troops have reached in Kursksuggesting that Russian forces are concerned about possible enemy mechanized advances, which are rapid and constant towards the north.

Russian Defense Minister, Andrei Belousovreported that Moscow will send additional forces to the region of Belgorodanother war front on the border with Ukraine that is under constant siege.

Are we witnessing a change in the course of the war?

The international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian He believes that in part there is a change of direction in the war, since reality indicates that there is an area of ​​Russian territory invaded and attacked by Ukrainian forces, something that had not happened before and that disconcerts the regime so much. Putin as the population itself, “who does not understand how something like this can happen, especially considering that official propaganda has been very efficient in saying that there is no war in Ukrainebut it is just a special operation”.

“With this action, the idea of ​​the Ukrainians would be to secure, under their control, Russian territory in order to exchange it in a hypothetical negotiation for areas occupied by the Russians; however, it is still not very clear what the objective is.“, Belaunde estimates in dialogue with The Trade.

“What would be important for Ukrainians is that Russia ship to Kursk troops that are now being used in Ukraine “On other war fronts, where the Russians have been slowly advancing for more than a year now, Putin’s withdrawal of some of these troops would ease the situation for the Ukrainians. So, in this respect, one could say that the outlook for the war is changing, at least in the short term.”Belaunde points out.

The analyst notes that for now Putin is sending Kursk 18 year old recruits, although remember that The families of these soldiers had been told that they were not going to be sent to the front.. “That is something that will cause problems for the president with the families.”.

“If the Ukrainian incursion continues, Putin will be forced to withdraw troops from Ukraine”Belaunde emphasizes.

For its part, Andres Gomez de la Torrea specialist in defense issues, says The Trade that caution is required when assessing the scale and results of the Ukrainian incursion.

“In operational terms, it was a surprising and effective maneuver, but also particularly distracting in attracting Russian logistics from its main fronts,” indicates Gomez de la Torre.

“Changing the course of war is more complexold maxims of war point out that several tactical victories do not ensure strategic victories.“, he says.

“It is too early to know if this operation will really have a real effect in the theatre of operations. My position is that it has not yet, and furthermore, it has advanced across the territory and not so much in depth. Yes, it is a more distracting tactic, but it is still too early to talk about territorial conquests for a subsequent peace negotiation. We must be very cautious with the results of this incursion and we must wait to see how big the Russian response will be.”indicates.