Daniel Noboa sweeps Ecuador: the keys to an overwhelming victory and the collapse of correism (which was already winning)

Noboa37 years, It will be four more years in office who assumed 17 months ago, winning the election that followed the call for advanced elections made by the president Guillermo Lasso.

LOOK: “Hard hand” and a Constituent Assembly: What comes to Ecuador after Noboa’s overwhelming victory over Correism?

Once the victory of Noboa by the National Electoral Council (CNE)González and the former president Rafael Correa They denounced fraudalthough they showed no evidence.

Noboa’s clear triumph occurred despite the fact that Ecuador registers a rebound in crime. Only in January 781 murders were counted, making it the most violent month in the history of the country.

Security is the issue that most worries Ecuadorians and Noboa has made the central axis of its management against the crime. In January 2024, he declared terrorists to more than 20 criminal bands. In addition, he decreed that in the country there is an internal armed conflict, which allowed the deployment of military to do police work.

During the electoral campaign, Noboa He talked about allowing the United States to send special forces to Ecuador and has received former Erik Prince, founder of the mercenario company Blackwater and who is currently advising the Ecuadorian security forces.

On the side of Correism, Sunday’s defeat was the worst since Rafael Correa He left power in 2017.

The reasons for Noboa’s victory

Simón Pachanosociologist and analyst at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (FLACSO), he said to Commerce that first Noboa won because in this second round the anticorreist vote was strengthened.

He added that a series of errors of the campaign Luisa González herein second round They were key to that strengthening of anticorreism.

“They talked about going to a Delarizationwhen the vast majority of Ecuadorians support dollarization. In addition, people were afraid of limitations to freedom, political persecution by a series of statements of Rafael Correa. Also The candidate’s statements about Venezuela were negativewhich made a situation similar to that of that country, He even said that Venezuela is better than Ecuador“Pachano added.

The analyst considered that another error of the Citizen Revolution was to choose a candidate for president and vice president, Diego Borjawithout electoral drag.

“Borja is even very questioned in the ranks of Correism. He was Correa Minister, then he totally went to the opposition, He came out in street demonstrations against Correa and shouting Out leash outside! And now come back in this way. So that generated a lot of rejection “, held.

“Rafael Correa chose his candidates very badly. He chooses them, there is no internal democracy in that party, he imposes and he wants to prevent the candidate or the candidate from becoming a new Lenín Moreindeer, that is, act on your own. He wants to have a puppet”, He explained.

Pachano mentioned that in recent days some chats circulated between The brothers Augusto and Abraham Verdugathat are held by the Prosecutor’s Office and where there is talk of alleged coordination with key figures of Correism to influence appointments of public authorities and strategies to consolidate their power within the State.

He added that the call of the electoral authorities so that people over 65 come to vote also ended up favoring Noboa’s candidacy.

For its part, the political analyst Farith Simón He said to Commerce that does not consider anticorreism as a key to the triumph of Noboa, since he argued that it is a fixed vote that appears in each choice.

“From that reality the campaigns are built: on the strong correísta vote and on the strong anticorreist vote. From that moment the campaigns seek to capture those who are not on those sides. Actually, In recent weeks, too many mistakes were made”, He scored.

“The accumulation of errors, plus the revelation of the famous audios among supporters of Belt who gave an account of their political control or attempt to use the spaces of representation for the appointment of nearby people made a difference ”he said.

Among the errors Simon also first mentioned the Delarization.

Second, speech on Peace managers as a proposal against insecurity, and where 72 million dollars were going to be spent. At this point, the analyst said that people associated the proposal with the Bolivarian militia implemented by Chavismo in Venezuela.

Third, Simon highlighted The speech adopted by Correism when he is about to succeed, which is of anger, of hate, revengesomething that scares voters.

“Then, many people who had decided to vote null, in rejection of Noboa Because the president has not appeared as a Democrat respectful of the rule of law, he changed his mind and supported him. For those mistakes of correism they ended up choosing the lesser evil“He said.

The security candidate

As for the strengths of NoboaSimon said that The strategy that worked was to present himself as the candidate capable of facing organized crime.

“But I repeat, I believe that he wins for those votes of rejection of the latest actions of Correism, not as an adherence to his proposals,” Simon insisted.

“The people who voted in the first round for him went to adhesion to his proposals and his speech, clearly. But many people who voted in the second round did not do it for him, but for fear of the other alternative,” he said.

Pachano said Both Noboa and González underpinned a hard hand speech“But he had more to present, how to visit Donald Trump, Bring Ecuador to Blackwater mercenary. ”

However, Pachano said that none went further, with proposals related to decimting drug trafficking by monitoring the money route, neutralizing the penetration of crime in politics, companies, in the Judiciary. “They stayed in Bukelism “.

Does Noboa have a blank check?

Farith Simón said that Noboa You must enter that The wide advantage he took out does not mean that he will have a blank check.

“He cannot say that he has won because people are totally in favor of his proposal, because there are many people who are afraid for certain authoritarian features of Noboa, of disrespect to the legal system,” said.

“Yeah Noboa He understands that the election won it because there are a set of people with fear of authoritarianism, abuse, to return to old political practices, then he will understand that there is a basic discourse that must assimilate: respect for the rules of the game ”, He emphasized.

For his part, Pachano believes that Noboa He will have a difficult government, because it does not have a political party, it is an isolated figure, and won by anticorreism. He stressed that in the National Assembly there is almost a draw between its bench and that of Correismo, which can bring problems when passing laws or reforms that are necessary.

In addition, he hesitated that he can continue pushing his idea of ​​calling a Constituent Assembly To replace the Constitution of Correa. “I don’t think I will continue with that idea, it was a very campaign and not thought of, which launched so far has any content.”