“There WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY (from Venezuela) FOR CUBA – ZERO. “I suggest to them (Cuba) that they reach an agreement BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” wrote trump on his Truth Social network, using capital letters to emphasize the message.
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It is estimated that in 2025, Venezuela sent to Cuba an average of 27,000 barrels of oil a day. The energy demand of the island is estimated between 110,000 and 120,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The difference is sought to be compensated with agreements established with Mexico and Russia.
US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with US oil company executives at the White House on January 9, 2026. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP).
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Historically, Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba were based on political agreements of deep cooperation between both governments, including energy assistance with almost no harsh commercial conditions in exchange for professional energy services. doctors and of security Cubans in Venezuelain addition to other areas.
The declaration of trump It occurred eight days after the capture by the United States of the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduroin an operation that involved bombings in Venezuelan territory and left at least 100 dead, including 32 Cubans members of the Chavista leader’s first security ring.
“Cuba survived for many years thanks to large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela in exchange for providing ‘security services’ for the last two Venezuelan dictators, ‘BUT NOT ANYMORE’. “Most of those Cubans have died after last week’s US attack, and Venezuela no longer needs protection from the thugs and extortionists who kept them kidnapped for so many years,” Trump said.
The tanker Ocean Mariner, currently under the flag of Liberia, upon arrival at the port of Havana on January 9, 2026. (Photo: YAMIL LAGE / AFP).
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trump also republished the message from a social network user X that suggested that the Secretary of State, Marco Rubiowould be president of Cuba and added the comment: “Sounds good to me!”
In answer to trumpthe Cuban president, Miguel Diaz-Canel said that “Cuba is a free, independent and sovereign nation. Nobody tells us what to do”.
He added that the island “is preparing” and is “willing to defend the Homeland to the last drop of blood.”
The message is clear: Cuba is already on Trump’s list
The president of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, attends a plenary session of the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 7, 2025. (Photo by Mauro PIMENTEL / AFP).
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Juan Alvarez Vitawho was ambassador of Peru in Cuba during part of Fidel Castro’s regime, interprets what was said by trump as an unmistakable sign that Havana has entered Washington’s list of strategic objectives.
For the diplomat, the message implies that Trump is willing to “repeat the dish” applied in Venezuela if there is no substantial political turnaround by the Cuban regime.
Álvarez Vita maintains that The internal situation in Cuba is the most serious of the entire stage of the communist systemeven worse than in previous decades. Based on his experience as ambassador in Havana and direct contacts on the island, he affirms that the economic and social crisis has deepened to levels “worse than ever,” now aggravated by the loss of Venezuelan oil, which arrived under preferential conditions in a scheme that — he remembers — dates back to the times of Hugo Chavez.
A man sells cakes in front of a mural of the hero of the Cuban Revolution, Ernesto “Che” Guevara, in Havana, on January 6, 2026. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP).
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The ambassador emphasizes that Cuba’s energy dependence is structural: The island does not have significant hydroelectric resources or its own oil production, which means that the definitive interruption of Venezuelan crude oil will have a direct and severe impact on the economy and daily life. “That agreement no longer exists, neither in volume nor in conditions.”
In this context, Álvarez Vita considers that Miguel Díaz-Canel’s regime has very few options leftand A negotiated opening with the United States appears as an almost inevitable solutionalthough politically costly. Unlike Venezuelahe points out, Cuba does not have comparable strategic resources or wide margins for negotiationwhich puts her in an even more fragile position than Maduro had before his fall.
Regarding the international factor, the ambassador recognizes that The historical relationship between Cuba and Russia is deeper than that of Moscow with Caracasbut warns that Trump acts under an unconventional negotiation logic. “First he corners his interlocutor and then forces him to accept the conditions,” explains, referring to the “doctrine “Donroe”an adapted version of the Monroe doctrine applied today on multiple geopolitical boards, from Latin America to Greenland.
Finally, Álvarez Vita points out that The timing and scope of an eventual action by the United States against Cuba remain uncertain.conditioned by the US Congress, the legislative elections and the island’s own internal dynamics. However, he emphasizes that the Venezuelan precedent has shown that Trump is willing to advance even outside the traditional molds, in an international scenario that he describes as unprecedented, unpredictable and with high global impact.
“Trump’s threat weighs, but Cuba is not Venezuela”
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel arrive at the Kremlin in Moscow for talks on May 7, 2025. (Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AFP).
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For his part, the Venezuelan political scientist Luis Nunes warns that threats of trump against Cuba They should be read with caution and in their proper context. Although the magnate has indicated that the island would stop receiving oil and money from Venezuela and has urged it to reach an agreement, Nunes emphasizes that It is not comparable to negotiate with Chavismo than with the Cuban leadershipa political structure with more than six decades of experience in resisting external pressures.
“President Trump talks a lot and often does what he says, but in the Cuban case things are not so simple,” points out. In his opinion, Cuba is a strategic asset for Russiavery different from Venezuelaand Moscow would hardly allow Washington to act unilaterally against “the jewel it has in the Caribbean”.
Nunes recognizes that there is a strategic plan to suffocate Cuba through the energy siegeat a time when the island is going through a deep crisis marked by prolonged blackouts, deteriorating infrastructure and a growing level of social desperation. However, he warns that the greatest risk to the regime does not come from an external threatbut from accumulated internal wear. “It is the key of desperation that can end up exploding at any moment. What Cubans are experiencing today is almost impossible to sustain, even with the mechanisms of control and repression,” he states.
In this scenario, the analyst considers that The combination of internal crisis and international pressure can become a time bombalthough he insists that any strategy towards Cuba It would require much more refined execution than that applied in other countries in the region. He also remembers the precedent of the American failure in the Bay of Pigs, as a warning about the risks of underestimating the complexity of the Cuban case.
For Nunes, coordination between Washington and Moscow will be key. An action by the United States without prior consultation with Russia could generate unpredictable consequencesespecially in a context marked by the proximity of the midterm elections in the US, which — according to the political scientist — pressure Trump to accelerate decisions with internal political impact.
Finally, he states that Cuba faces limited options: move towards a negotiated opening with the United States, deepen its alignment with Russia or simply try to buy time. “Russians are experts at living one day at a time”he concludes.
