Crisis between the United States and Mexico: what consequences will the tension have due to the Rocha case and the CIA agents

The death of the two CIA agents occurred in the state of Chihuahuain the north of Mexicoafter an anti-drug operation. According to the information available, both died in a vehicle accident on April 19, when the convoy in which they were traveling—along with Mexican agents—came down a mountainous road after participating or collaborating in the dismantling of a clandestine drug laboratory.

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Regarding what they did specifically, there is partially contradictory versions: US sources indicate that they fulfilled an intelligence support role within an operation against drug trafficking, while Mexican authorities maintain that their presence was not authorized by the federal government and even that one of them entered the country as a tourist.

Furthermore, it is not entirely clear whether they participated directly in the operation or if they only accompanied local forces.

“There cannot be people from the United States working in the field, that is clear”said the president Claudia Sheinbaum about the case. He assured that his government did not know of the presence of American agents in Chihuahuashipment a diplomatic note demanding formal explanations to Washington and warned that unauthorized operations “must not happen again”.

For its part, the United States has presented the case as anti-narcotics technical cooperationdownplaying the idea of ​​an irregular undercover operation by the agents.

Regarding the case of the governor Ruben Rocha Moyaactivist of Brunettethe same party of Sheinbaumthe Department of Justice USA filed charges against him by pointing out that he collaborated with the Sinaloa Cartelreceiving bribes and facilitating drug trafficking operations, and has requested his extradition.

In addition, the accusation is also against nine other high-level Sinaloa officials.

In the case of Rocha, the Mexican government has indicated that The arrest and extradition request did not come with sufficient evidence to proceed legally in its territory.

The Mexican Prosecutor’s Office has even indicated that need more formal evidence to evaluate the case and make judicial decisions.

Sheinbaum Mexico has highlighted will not proceed with arrests or extraditions without credible evidence and due process.

“If the Prosecutor’s Office receives compelling and irrefutable evidence in accordance with Mexican legislation… it must proceed in accordance with the law… We are not going to cover anyone who has committed a crime. However, if there is no clear evidence it is evident that the objective of these accusations by the Department of Justice is political… Truth, justice and defense of sovereignty”declared Sheinbaum.

Consequences of stress

Victor Manuel Sanchezresearch professor at the Autonomous University of Coahuila, doctor in public policies from the CIDE and scholar of organized crime, warned The Commerce that the current crisis between the United States and Mexico marks “the moment of greatest tension in recent years” in matters of securityonly below the historical impact of the case of DEA agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena in 1985.

In his opinion, it even surpasses recent episodes such as the arrest of the former Secretary of Defense Salvador Cienfuegos and opens an uncertain scenario for the Sheinbaum government. “We still do not see to what extent diplomatic pressure will escalate“, he indicated, in a particularly sensitive context due to the renegotiation of the T-MEC and Mexico’s strong economic dependence on its northern neighbor.

Regarding the accusation against Rocha MoyaSánchez qualified the claim of the Mexican Executive for the lack of public evidence and pointed out that “It is not that the United States has failed in its responsibilities”.

He explained that “The extradition treaties signed between the US and Mexico do not indicate that in the first instance the person making the request must provide all the evidence. As long as there is an open process, in this case in the United States, it is enough to request extradition. Then, when the arrest is made, Mexico has up to 60 days to request the evidence, and Washington has up to 60 days to provide it.”

In that sense, he maintained that “Mexico is playing discursively with it” to avoid an immediate decision. “An excuse was sought not to make the arrest.”

What options does Sheinbaum have in the case of Rocha? Sánchez proposed three scenarios: advance with extradition, with high political costs for the Government; reject it due to lack of evidence or promote internal investigations that do not lead to its delivery to Washington.

Sánchez believes that the third scenario is the one that is materializing at the moment. He explained that Rocha Moya and the other indicated authorities have been asked to request leave or step away from their positions, something they have already donewhich will allow the Mexican government to announce the opening of investigations within the country. Under this formula, the idea is conveyed that there is institutional action and a will to clarify the facts, but without immediately activating the extradition mechanism towards the United States.

According to the analyst, this path would imply that the investigation in Mexico progress without necessarily reaching conclusive or judicializable conclusionswhich in practice would allow gradually deactivate internal political pressure and remove those involved from the public scene. The result would be a “managed” closure of the case: the officials no longer continue in their positions, but They will not be sent to American justice either..

However, Sánchez warned that this scenario has a clear cost on the external level: will deepen distrust with Washington and will fuel the perception of lack of cooperation in combating drug trafficking, further straining the bilateral security relationship.

The analyst acknowledged that, until now, the coordinated work between Mexico and the United States “it was working”especially in the information exchangeeven in sensitive cases such as that of the agents linked to the CIA who died in Chihuahua. In that sense, he ruled out a total break, since Washington continues to need results in Mexican territory and, therefore, It is not in your interest to interrupt security cooperation.

However, he warned that the impact of the current crisis will be seen in the tone and political dynamics of the relationship. Sánchez anticipated a progressive hardening of the discourse from sectors of the administration of Donald Trump, with increasingly direct accusations against the government of Claudia Sheinbaum.

“Accusations are going to become more and more frequent“, he said, recalling that there are already statements in which Mexico is accused of being infiltrated or conditioned by organized crime. In that context, bilateral cooperation could become more conditioned, more tense and more publicly exposedmaintaining itself technically, but deteriorating politically and diplomatically.