Colombia without US anti -drug endorsement: What does it imply and what responsibility falls to Gustavo Petro?

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“The president of the United States has determined that The Colombian government has failed to fulfill its obligations for drug control, PERo has issued an exemption so that critical cooperation, including anti -narcotics, continues ”, The State Department expressed.

Of the Certification It is up to the economic, military and police aid that delivers USA For the fight against drug trafficking. In the case of Colombiathis country receives about 450 million dollars a year. The exemption makes this help be cut automatically, but will depend on what finally decides Trump In this regard.

Before knowing the state department statement, Petro had announcing during a council of ministers that the United States will react to Colombia in the fight against drug trafficking, “After dozens of dead, of police, above all, of soldiers, of common people trying to prevent cocaine from arriving.”

Petro He also said that the White House is looking to have a puppet president: “Simply, the United States participates in Colombia’s internal policy; He wants a puppet president. The Colombian people will respond if they want a puppet president, like the one who sold to Panama, or if he wants a free and sovereign nation. ”

In retaliation, Colombia announced on Tuesday that it stopped the purchase of weapons from the United States.

Since 1986 the United States certifies the efforts made by producing countries to fight drug trafficking. This year, in addition to Colombia, Afghanistan, Bolivia, Burma and Venezuela have been discletified.

USA He considers that these countries have “failed demonstrable during the last 12 months both in complying with their obligations under international drug trafficking agreements and taking the required measures.”

Specifically, according to UN data, Colombia records 253,000 cultivated coca leaf hectaresone of its highest levels of production since the country began to be monitored in 1999.

To have an idea of ​​what this figure means, it is worth noting that the three largest coca leaf producers, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, add 376,000 hectares of coca leaf crops.

The volume of drug seizures has increased in Colombia, reaching 848.5 tons of cocaine In 2024, almost double the total of 2019. However, that figure could mean that more drugs that would ever be leaving the country.

As for the policy that President Petro has followed, in 2022 he suspended the forced eradication of coca leaf cropsunder the argument that it was expensive, ineffective and damaged poor rural communities.

At the same time, he opted for the Voluntary crop substitution and for agreements with FARC dissidents to eliminate plantations, although its viability is uncertain. It has also reinforced military and police operations against armed and drug traffickers.

In addition, since 2015, during the mandate of Juan Manuel Santos, Aerial cultivation sprays were suspended with glyphosate.

Colombia was bounded by the United States in 1996, during the government of Ernesto Samperwho faced a scandal for the alleged financing of his campaign by the Cali cartel, something that was never proven.

The consequences for Colombia

Héctor Galeano Davidassociate researcher of the Institute of Higher Social and Cultural Studies of Latin America and the Caribbean, he told him to Commerce that Colombia fought from a hard descertificationwhich was going to mean the almost root cut of the resources that the United States delivers.

He added that the United States embassy in Colombia has said that resources will not be affected for the fight against drug trafficking, which are basically economic and logistics.

“However, knowing the government Trump It is very clear that there will be repercussions surely in the commercial order. Trump may appeal to the tool that has been handling since January 20, which is the increase in tariffs. And quite possibly will decide a cut between 30-35% of the resources it has been delivering to the country ”he said.

For its part, Elizabeth DickinsonAnalyst of the International Crisis Group, explained to Commerce That the exemption granted by the United States means that there is recognition of the institutional relationship between the two countries.

“The Security Forces of Colombia and the United States have a close collaboration on issues such as the disarticulation of organized crime, and that remains in force despite tensions at the high level. So, in practice, financial repercussions, at least today, are very minimal”he remarked.

“There may be more tensions in the bilateral relationship. And, obviously, For Colombia, not good to be on the same level as other countries such as Burma or Afghanistan. But I think that can also be overcome “Dickinson added.

What is behind Trump’s decision?

The relationship between Petro and Trump It is tense and is marked by clashes on migratory issues, deportations and mutual criticisms.

In that sense, Dickinson said it is a reality that coca leaf culture has reached record levels in Colombia. But he added that the decision of Trump It also reflects “Political tensions between Washington and Bogotá on issues such as migration and geopolitics, including Gustavo Petro’s position against conflict in Gaza.”

Galeano indicated that, In his opinion, descertification is basically political. “In fact, the Petro government has so far seized 65% more drugs than what the Government of Iván Duque did,” said.

He added that the growth of coca leaf crops comes from the Santos Government, continued in Duke’s management, and continued with Petro.

“There are several causes. Without a doubt, one of them is that the peace agreement allowed the FARC to leave key territories for drug trafficking, but these were not filled by institutionality, but were occupied by other illegal actors,” He scored Galeano.

“The second cause is also closely related to the implementation of the peace agreements. There were many obstacles to the issue of voluntary substitution of illicit crops. This is tied with the issue of the suspension of fumigation, which was by order of the judiciary due to damage to the environment and the human being,” Galeano said.

“Under those premises, I would not catalog the United States decision as the response to the failure of the fight against the Petro government, but fundamentally as a political decision”he said.

Between 2000 and 2018, The United States gave Colombia more than 10,000 million dollars for military, social and narcocultive eradication purposes. Washington is Bogotá’s main commercial and military partner.

What should Petro do?

Dickinson He said that Colombia He has a challenge to get the certification to be returned, although he remarked that the strategies that reduced crop areas in past years, such as aerial fumigation, are no longer legally allowed by the State.

“The Government is trying to arrange more voluntary replacement for crops, but that is slow and there will be no immediate results, “ said.

Galeano considered that For the Petro government it will be very complex to restore normality in political relations with the United States. “I think it will be a work of the next government. And I think that surely ‘normalization’ will be produced when Trump leaves the White House”.

The analyst said that he has no doubt that this issue will be the spearhead of the right in the campaign to win the presidential elections of 2026.

“The impact it has on society as such, I think it will be much less than the previous decertification in the government of Ernesto Samper. Colombian society has somehow been aware that there must be a co -responsibility between the producer and the largest consumer, in this case the United States,” Galeano said.