Bolivia without dollars and in economic crisis: The struggle between Arce and Morales that divides the country

LOOK: Does Evo Morales want to carry out a coup against Luis Arce? The keys to the “March to save Bolivia”

Today the reality is different, with a more explosive addition. A political struggle that clouds what should be the government’s objective, which is to get Bolivians out of the crisis. Instead, President Luis Arce remains immersed in his fight with Evo Morales, his former boss who governed between 2006 and 2019 and who now wants to return to the presidency at any cost.

Since Tuesday, Morales has led the “Great national march to save Bolivia: for life, democracy and revolution,” a mobilization of thousands of farmers, coca growers and union members that began in Caracollo, in the department of Oruro, and that seeks to reach on Monday to La Paz, the seat of the Government. Morales and his followers insist that the march is to “save the country” in the face of the chaotic economic situation, but they also demand that the former president be able to run in the August 2025 elections. “They are not going to kill the MAS [Movimiento al Socialismo]except for my candidacy,” Morales stated, summarizing the objectives of his mobilization.

The MAS, which has governed for 17 years, is experiencing an internal fight for its leadership. Last year, an important faction elected Morales as its national leader in a congress that Arce Catacora did not attend, making evident the gap in the ruling party as the ‘arcistas’ claim that it is time to renew the leadership of the organization. The president also promoted a law, enacted last August, to annul the internal elections in the political parties that would determine the presidential candidate, leaving the historic coca grower leader out of the race.

The ruling party has also been planning a referendum in which it seeks to consult citizens about fuel subsidies and, especially, whether Morales should be allowed to run for president again, despite the fact that the Constitutional Court has already ruled that he could not. do it again.

Both Evo and his supporters assure that he can be a candidate again and that they are only seeking to make amends, while Arce points out that the MAS deputies from the ‘evista’ wing permanently blocked reforms that could have alleviated the economy.

For the government, Morales is a coup plotter who wants to destabilize the current government and force constitutional succession so that the president of the Senate, similar to the former president, assumes the presidency and then hands over power to Evo Morales.

“If the first and second men abandon the people, there is the third man of the State, Brother Andrónico Rodríguez is with us,” said the former president at the beginning of the march, which he abandoned for 24 hours, and then returned due to pressure from his bases.

The economic crisis

A few weeks ago, a comment went viral stating that Bolivia would soon become the next Venezuela and that more than a million Bolivians would emigrate to Peru in search of dollars.

Beyond the sensationalism – this newspaper published a note explaining the improbability of something like this happening – the truth is that Bolivia is going through a deep economic crisis as a result of the mismanagement of hydrocarbons that has prevented further exploration, a reality that has caused the country to buy gas and have to sell it at a minimum price in the local market due to subsidies.

“Evo, you already made a mistake once when you wanted to impose your candidacy, and that decision had a high cost for the people”

Luis Arce

“This march is not to favor one person, it is the response of a people tired of an unconscious government”

Evo Morales

According to the AP agency, Bolivia will spend $1.2 billion this year on importing gasoline and diesel at international prices, which it then sells at half its cost. To finance these purchases, the government appealed to international currency reserves, which has aggravated the shortage of dollars, which influences the increase in products, especially food.

Given this, the government has had to dip into reserves, which have fallen sharply from a peak of 15 billion dollars in 2014 (at the height of the economy) to about 1.7 billion dollars in 2024.

Bolivian fatigue

With the economy in check, Bolivians do not understand why they have been left in the middle of the fight between Morales and Arce, and this is being reflected in the popularity of both leaders.

A recent survey by the company Diagnosis indicates that Morales has only 12% voting intention, while 13% are indifferent to his possible candidacy. Arce, for his part, has a 50% negative image compared to 46.2% support, according to the consultancy Public Opinion. Although the president has not officially launched his candidacy, it is almost a fact that he will go for re-election.

“It is undeniable that the threat of social upheaval in Bolivia responds to an internal fight between Arce and Morales for control of their party, just as the economic crisis was generated by the inefficiency of both when they governed together,” said former president Carlos Mesa. (2003-2005) and leader of the opposition alliance Citizen Community (CC).

The former president of Bolivia Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga (2001-2002) declared that Morales’ intention is to “decapitate the duo that he elevated”, referring to Arce and Choquehuanca, so he seeks to “change puppets” and that the president of the Senate, Andrónico Rodríguez, assumes the Presidency of the Executive.

“This is a problem among masistas (MAS members). “Let them not bother the people, let them solve their issues among themselves, the people have other concerns,” the neighborhood leader of El Alto, Juan Saucedo, told AP.

For the Bolivian political scientist, Vladimir Torrez, Morales’ bet is to “knock down President Arce”, as he told France 24, however, he does not have everything with him because the indigenous leader has many “antibodies” and “making blockades and marches can play against him.”

On Friday, the Minister of the Presidency, María Nela Prada, invited Morales to dialogue and summoned him to a meeting in La Paz, but the former president rejected the initiative because it was not an “official invitation.”

It remains to be seen what will happen between Sunday and Monday, when several groups related to the president plan to contain Evo’s march in La Paz and prevent them from reaching the Executive and Legislative headquarters. Will Arce dare to arrest the former president with whom he worked for a decade for sedition?