Bolivia: What can happen after the law that enables the Government to resort to the military to unblock the routes?

The political and social crisis in Bolivia entered a new phase on Sunday after Congress approved, after 15 hours of debate, the law that regulates states of exception, a rule that enables the president Rodrigo Paz to resort to the Armed Forces to unblock the roads taken by protesters. The decision comes after more than a month of protests, shortages and growing tension in different regions of the country, and raises questions about the next step of the Government: deepen negotiations with the mobilized sectors or resort to extraordinary measures to regain control of the routes.

The norm establishes a legal framework so that the Executive could declare states of exception and coordinate actions between the police and the Armed Forces in serious crisis situations, under the argument of guaranteeing humanitarian corridors, supply of food, fuel and medicine.

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One of the articles of the law states that Those in uniform, during the state of emergency, “will enjoy the presumption of legality” and that the government must assume its legal defense.

This article will allay the military’s fear of being subjected to criminal trials for the use of force in conflict situations.indicated a report from the AFP agency.

Rodrigo Paz, 58, assumed power on November 5. The president has reiterated calls for dialogue, but so far this has not been welcomed by the main organizations leading the protests.

For a month now, Bolivia has been facing road blockades led by the Túpac Katari Peasant Federation and the Bolivian Workers’ Central (COB). Initially, the protest leaders demanded salary increases and other social demands, but later Groups loyal to former President Evo Morales joined in, turning the resignation of President Rodrigo Paz into the main banner of the mobilizations.

At the moment, Roadblocks extend to eight of Bolivia’s nine departments and have caused shortages of food, fuel, medicines and, especially, medical oxygen for health centers.

Protesters block routes in at least 80 points in the country.

According to data from the Ombudsman’s Office, seven people have died due to lack of timely medical attentiona derived from the blockades, while three others died in the context of the protests, including a protester who was shot during an unblocking operation.

The most recent episode of violence occurred on Saturday in San Juliánin the department of Holy Crosswhere clashes during an unblocking operation left 16 civilians and 19 police officers injured.

According to a report from the EFE agency, the operation, in which tear gas was used, managed to free the route for a few moments, but shortly after the protesters regrouped and reinforced the blocking points, which led to a confrontation with the police that lasted more than four hours.

Closer to dialogue or confrontation?

consulted by The Commercethe Bolivian political analyst Franz Flores Castro, He assured that the Bolivian crisis is going through a turning point. Although in recent days a window seemed to open for the reduction of tensions, the recent clashes registered in Holy Cross show that the conflict is still far from being resolved, he said.

Flores recalled that just a few days ago there was a partial opening of routes that allowed the entry of several tons of food to the cities of Peace and The Highthe most affected by the blockades.

“That promised that things were moving towards an implicit pact, a kind of opening of the roads,” he pointed out.

However, The situation became complicated again after the incidents that occurred in San Juliánwhere mobilized groups resisted the unlocking operations.

The analyst warned that there are reports about the possible use of firearms by some protesters in San Julián, although he asked for caution due to the intense information dispute that is also being waged on social networks.

“Today this fight is being fought on real ground, but also on social media, and misinformation goes from one side to the other,” he stated.

Flores added that one of the factors that would have contributed to the escalation of tension in San Julián was the participation of the Cruceñista Youth Movement in the unblocking work. As he explained, the presence of members of this regionalist group together with the police forces generated rejection among some residents and mobilized sectors of the area.

According to Flores, some of the protesters would have interpreted this participation as a provocation due to historical tensions between sectors related to Santa Cruz regionalism and peasant and indigenous organizations of western Bolivia. “They said that they could accept the unblocking of the police, but not of those who have called them savages, Indians, blockades or inhumans.””he explained.

In his opinion, this element helps to understand why the operation ended up generating greater resistance than expected.

Rodrigo Paz’s strategy: buy time and wear down the protest

In Flores’ opinion, The approval of the law that regulates states of exception does not necessarily imply that President Paz is determined to immediately decree an extraordinary measure.

On the contrary, consider that The Government seeks to buy time while betting on the progressive erosion of the mobilizations.

“When the Government sent the regulations for the states of exception to the Legislature, it actually tried to buy time. The Government’s option is clear: to make these movements weaken over time to the point of non-existence,” held.

According to the analyst, the Executive is trying to combine sectoral negotiations with a strategy of political and logistical wear and tear on the blockades, avoiding for now adopting decisions that could escalate the conflict.

“Evidently they seek to open the negotiation, but betting on the weakening of the mobilization,” he summarized.

Will you declare a state of emergency?

Although the new law opens the door for broader State intervention in the event of a worsening of the crisis, Flores believes that The Government is aware of the risks that resorting to a state of exception or state of siege would entail.

“The Government, in reality, does not want to take that measure,” he stated.

His argument is that Bolivia is experiencing a crisis of state capacity and that effectively imposing authority throughout the territory would be extremely difficult even under an exceptional regime.

“We are in a State crisis. Bolivia is a weak State and cannot impose order and authority throughout the territory. A state of exception would force the Government to try to do so, and that is nothing short of impossible,” he pointed out.

For Flowers, The main fear of the Executive is that a large-scale intervention will lead to a spiral of violence that ends up strengthening the mobilized sectors.

“Historically the opposite has happened: The more deaths there are, the more violence is unleashed and those mobilized come out with greater force.”, he warned.

Despite his reservations, the analyst considers that The new legislation leaves open an option that could be used if negotiations fail and blockades persist.

In this scenario, military intervention to clear routes would appear as the extreme resource of an administration increasingly pressured by shortages and economic wear and tear.

What’s coming in the next few days

For the next few days, Flores foresees that the negotiation attempts promoted by the Executive will continue in different regions of the country.

“There is negotiation at the department level. “Ministers are going to all departments to try to commit to sectoral, departmental and municipal demands.”he explained.

According to the analyst, Some of those efforts had begun to generate results before the recent episodes of violence, so there is still room for a negotiated exit.

“Probably an unlocking process was already taking place, but unfortunately we have gone backwards,” he stated.

For now, he concludes, Bolivia remains in an uncertain situation: dialogue continues to be the Government’s main commitment, but the approval of the new law leaves on the table the possibility of more drastic measures if the crisis continues to deepen.