Sergio Massa vs. Javier Milei: a choice between two antagonistic models

Ending an electoral cycle marked by the unexpected (the triumph of Javier Milei in the August primaries and the comeback of Sergio Massa in the first round of October), pollsters and analysts take the figures of recent days with caution. Nobody dares to predict a result in this runoff, but a scenario of parity is perceived. In the streets, workplaces and family gatherings, opinions are divided.

LOOK: What were the Argentine elections like in the last 20 years (and how many times did they go to a runoff)?

“This time the surprise would be if one of the two reached a wide difference“, tells us Martín Rodríguez Yebra, editorial secretary of the newspaper “La Nación”.

In the four weeks after the first round, the crossfire intensified with personal insults, accusations of a dirty war and even allegations of irregularities in the electoral system. With no other competitors in the race, both the ruling party Massa and the libertarian Milei drew a line between the options.

“Let’s see what predominates: if the division democracy vs. anti-democracy that Massa tried to install or if that of change vs. continuity to which Milei has appealed,” says political scientist and historian Camila Perochena.

There was 23% absenteeism in the first round on October 22.

— Inflationary backpack —

The 36.8% obtained a month ago in the first round gave a positive boost to the candidate of the Peronist Union for the Homeland front. With annual inflation of 142% and poverty of 40%, the biggest challenge for Massa in these months has been to detach himself from his suit as Minister of Economy.

“Despite the fact that he is part of the current administration, he has sought to convey that if he wins, a new government will begin in which he will make other decisions,” notes Roberto Starke, director of Infomedia Consulting.

For Rodríguez Yebra, despite having a low ceiling due to the economic situation, the candidate-minister maintains a chance of winning because he faces Milei, a disruptive character who generates doubts and fears in a sector of the population. “Because of the way the economy is, if Massa were facing a more traditional candidate, today we would be talking about an election already decided,” he says.

According to analysts, certain positions of the libertarian economist on sensitive issues such as gender, memory or security mean that in some voters the economic variable is not the only one to take into account.

“Many people hate Kirchnerism, but at the same time they tell you that they could not vote for a candidate who denies climate change or who points out that the dictatorship did not have a plan to disappear people,” says the editorial secretary of “La Nación.” .

Some of these controversial positions of Milei, along with economic proposals such as the reduction of subsidies, were used by the official sector to generate viral content and street posters. Banners with the title “Milei no”, to which they added concepts such as “Chaos, weapons, sale of organs, education voucher” were seen in some main avenues of Buenos Aires in the last two weeks.

The La Libertad Avanza candidate criticized this advertising strategy and pointed out that the government itself promoted a “campaign of fear.” With the idea of ​​counteracting this, during his last spot, the economist called on citizens to vote today so that “hope conquers fear.”

Argentina celebrates 40 years of the return to democracy this 2023 after the last military dictatorship (1976-83).

— The challenge of growing —

On the night of October 22, after reaching 30% of the votes in the first round, Javier Milei did not speak of disappointment. He had not grown compared to the primaries – where he was surprisingly the most voted – but he valued what his young group had achieved in a short time.

“If you had told me two years ago that we were going to be contesting the runoff with Kirchnerism, I really wouldn’t have believed it,” he said that night.

From there came the challenge of attracting voters from other stores. The bridge was quickly built with former president Mauricio Macri and with Patricia Bullrich, the candidate of the center-right coalition Together for Change, which had come third with 24%.

Camila Perochena considers that this alliance was a key step for the economist in his attempt to build a structure. “But it could be a double-edged sword. Because it seeks to generate greater certainty regarding his government, but it also blurs the anti-caste image that he built and made him attractive,” she says.

To secure the votes of Together for Change and capture as many votes from the dissident Peronist Juan Schiaretti (the governor of Córdoba who came fourth in the first round with 7%), Milei had to moderate part of his speech and go out to clarify several points of discussion.

“He began to convey the idea that several of his proposals, mainly those linked to the reduction of subsidies, were not going to be for now or were not going to be done exactly as his detractors said,” describes Rodríguez Yebra.

Aware of the electoral strength of Peronism in the province of Buenos Aires, the historical bastion of this movement, the La Libertad Avanza candidate prioritized closing his campaign in the interior of the country. “He sought to consolidate his strength in important provinces such as Mendoza, Santa Fe and Córdoba, trying to balance the balance in the face of a potential Peronist victory in the largest electoral district,” explains Starke.

—The country that is coming—

Whether Massa or Milei is the winner, analysts indicate that the first speech of the elected head of state should aim to calm the markets. One of the first issues to resolve will be the updating of the official dollar, which was frozen by Massa after the primary elections. “Inflation ran almost 40% during this period. There is a significant exchange delay. After the election, it is almost a fact that there will be a devaluation jump,” says Rodríguez Yebra.

An eventual arrival of Massa to the presidency raises the question of the role that the current vice president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, would have in the administration. Camila Perochena, who has closely investigated the former ruler in her book “Cristina and the story. “Kirchnerism and its battles for the past,” she says that if Massa wins today, there will be a reorganization on the front.

“Cristina has been absent in the campaign, but that does not mean that in the government it will continue to be that way. In any case, if Massa wins the presidency, he will become the leader of Peronism. Unlike Alberto Fernández, Massa is a politician more skilled at asserting his leadership,” he explains.

A victory for the libertarian would open a climate of negotiation. Because it does not have legislative majorities, to govern Milei would have to establish bridges with potential allies. “If he wants to pass laws, he is going to have to negotiate. What conditions does the support that a part of Together for Change gave you entail? How much negotiating or yielding capacity does Milei have? Several questions arise,” Perochena foresees.

After several intense months of campaigning, this weekend’s electoral silence has not been enough to calm a country in suspense. The Futureology exercises will end tonight, when, finally, the electoral jury proclaims the new tenant of the Casa Rosada until the end of 2027.