“The departure of Rodrigo Paz would be a catastrophe for Bolivia”: what the president can do after the repeal of Law 1341

On Wednesday in Bolivia there were around fifty blocking points on roads, several of them strategic routes.

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The protests began at the beginning of May with economic demandsamong them the increase in the cost of living, fuel shortages and salary demands, but later they were expanded and other social and political actors were added. As the weeks passed, the demands evolved into broader demandsincluding criticism of the Government’s economic measures and, in some sectors, requests for resignation Rodrigo Pazwho has only been in power for six months.

Roadblocks have caused shortages of food, fuel and medicineespecially in cities like La Paz and El Alto.

Under that context, In the early hours of Wednesday, Paz promulgated the law that annulled the restrictions on the intervention of the Armed Forces in internal conflicts, although his Government has assured that The declaration of a state of emergency is the “last option” to which he will resort if the dialogue does not prosper.

The origin of Law 1341

The Law 1341 was born in the midst of the political crisis of 2020 with the intention of setting rules for the use of extraordinary powers of the State, after a period marked by protests and debate about the use of public force during the interim government of Jeanine Anez.

In concrete terms, the law defined the conditions to declare a state of exceptiondemanding that an extraordinary and duly justified situation existed.

It required delimiting the scope of the measurespecifying the affected territory, the reasons and the duration.

Established legislative controlsso that the decisions of the Executive would be subject to institutional supervision.

It imposed temporary restrictions and specific procedurespreventing exceptional measures from remaining open or indefinite.

He recalled that states of exception must be executed within the constitutional frameworkwithout converting them into an unlimited suspension of the legal order.

What scenarios open up for Rodrigo Paz?

The repeal of Law 1341 opened a new debate in Bolivia about the margins of action that the President Paz. The Bolivian political analyst and former parliamentarian Erika Brockmann explains that this new scenario does not mean that the Government is automatically one step away from decreeing a emergency or move towards militarization.

In dialogue with The CommerceBrockmann maintains that before making a decision of that magnitude, the Executive must evaluate political, institutional and operational factors.

“Certain conditions have to be met for this to happen. A very serious analysis of the state of the Armed Forces must be carried out.“, of the logistical capabilities after so many days of fuel shortages and also of the police themselves,” manifests.

According to Brockmann, the Government not only has tools linked to the use of force, but could apply targeted measures aimed at actors that are affecting public infrastructure or strategic sectors.

He emphasizes that “There are no conditions to even think about a rupture of the constitutional order.”

“In Bolivia, states of exception have not worked for many years”

The political scientist warns that the country’s recent history shows that this type of mechanism does not necessarily resolve deep political crises.

“In Bolivia states of exception have not worked for many years,” holds.

Brockmann remembers that one of the most relevant events occurred in the year 2000, when the emergency declared by Hugo Banzer failed to contain social conflicts and, on the contrary, ended up strengthening forms of political pressure such as blockades.

In his opinion, The strategies observed in current mobilizations show a greater degree of organization and sophistication.

“It has been noted in this conflict that the practices and strategies they are using in the blockade have become much more sophisticated, with greater violence.“, he says.

The risk of militarization

The analyst considers that The Executive would be evaluating focused intervention options rather than broad action on the national territory.

He added that the Government would face a particularly complex scenario due to the political and social risks involved in military deployment in the midst of high conflict.

“When they see tanks, a dead person appears at any time and you don’t always know if it comes from the military or from some radical people. “They are waiting for the dead.”he explains.

In that sense, he maintains that any state action would have to be developed under strict protocols and a “proportional and highly regulated” force.

“Rodrigo Paz came in to manage the catastrophe”

Brockmann frames the current crisis within a broader political and economic transitionmarked—as he points out—by economic deterioration, institutional tensions and external factors.

“Rodrigo Paz enters the government to manage the inherited economic catastrophe”, emphasizes.

The political scientist adds that the president simultaneously faces an energy crisis, economic pressures and strong internal political tension.

And he launches one of his most forceful phrases on the current scenario:

“The departure of President Paz at this moment would be a catastrophe. There must be no room for radical demands such as those of Evo Moraleswhich calls for new elections, and I think that society in general has a contrary view on this.”

According to your reading, Bolivia is going through a “turning moment” and a transition “that is not going to be simple” towards a new political stage that has not yet been fully defined.

Evo Morales and the “power of the street”

About the role of Evo MoralesBrockmann considers that he retains influence, although he would no longer have the same political weight as in previous years.

“He is an image that is behind, politically worn out, but when he intervenes he is pointing the way for this entire movement.””, he maintains.

According to the analyst, during two decades of governments of the Movement towards Socialism (MAS) Intermediate leadership and organizations were consolidated that today have their own mobilization capacity.

“There is a leadership dispute of the popular bloc that Evo Morales still represents”.

However, he maintains that social support for certain forms of protest could be changing. “The popular is not a monopoly of Evo Morales and the popular is mutating at this moment”he emphasizes.