Bolivia on the brink of a new crisis: what is behind the protests and calls for resignation against Rodrigo Paz

Rodrigo Paz The government took office in November 2025 with the promise of fixing the country’s economy, marked by a shortage of dollars, fuel shortages and high inflation, after almost 20 years of governments of the leftist Movement towards Socialism (MAS), first with Evo Morales and then with Luis Arce.

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To confront the crisis, Paz applied measures with a strong economic impact: eliminated the fuel subsidy In force for more than two decades, it reduced public spending and sought external financing to recover liquidity and stabilize the economy.

However, the Government faces resistance from unions and social organizations historically close to the Morales and Arce governments. The main tension arose with the Bolivian Workers’ Central (COB)which rejects the closure of loss-making state companies and accuses the Executive of promoting “covert privatization.”

The EFE agency reported on Monday that The teachers in Santa Cruz joined the protests, who went on strikes and chained themselves in public offices to demand better salaries and participation in a new educational law.

Besides, The coca growers of the Tropic of Cochabamba, close to Morales, threatened to join the mobilizations in the midst of growing political tension due to the arrest warrant against the former president.

Among their demands, COB and other sectors demand a 20% salary increasewhile Paz rejects that possibility due to the fiscal impact. The Executive accuses some groups of trying to destabilize the Government to regain political influence.

For his part, the peasant leader Alejandro Yura told EFE that his sector is no longer seeking “dialogue” with the Government, but rather “the resignation” of the president.

Meanwhile, the National Chamber of Industries warned that protests and blockades generate economic losses of between 50 and 60 million dollars a day.

Gasoline in bad condition

One of the biggest blows for Rodrigo Paz was the crisis over the sale of gasoline in poor condition, which caused protests by transporters and ended with the departure in April of the Minister of Hydrocarbons Mauricio Medinaceli. In addition, the state oil company YPFB went through internal instability and allegations of corruption.

The Government admitted in February that “poor quality” gasoline was distributed. According to the then Minister of Hydrocarbons, the problem would have arisen from contaminating residues in storage tanks inherited from previous administrations, which altered the mixture of imported fuel.

Subsequently, the Executive went further and denounced possible corruption networks within YPFB, deliberate adulteration of fuel, mixture with water and oils and alleged “sabotage” to destabilize the new Government.

However, as of May there is no definitive official conclusion or closed investigations that clearly determine who was directly responsible.

The social impact was very strong. Thousands of drivers reported mechanical damage to their vehicles such as engine failures, deterioration of injectors, and fuel pump problems. yy paralysis of its transport units. Driver unions claim that more than 10,000 vehicles were affected.

Rodrigo Paz was trapped in the center and ended up rejected from the left and right

The journalist and political analyst Rafael Archondo considered that the crisis facing the government of Peace It worsened rapidly just six months after he came to power.

Archondo pointed to The Commerce that the Executive tried to contain the demonstrations, but failed to stop them, and attributed part of the escalation to the recent process of subnational elections in Bolivia, whose results showed that Evo Morales still retains regional political influenceespecially in Cochabambawhere he managed to promote related authorities despite the judicial and political restrictions against him.

The analyst maintained that One of the Government’s mistakes was deciding to govern without building a solid parliamentary majority, despite the fact that there were possibilities of forming alliances. In his opinion, that decision weakened the Executive and forced to govern mainly by decrees, without sufficient political support to promote deep reforms.

He also highlighted that The Government showed weakness in key areas, such as the management of the hydrocarbon crisis, the instability in the state oil company and the constant changes of authorities.

“The inherited economic crisis has not ceased,” Archondo stated, pointing out that The withdrawal of the fuel subsidy was practically the only important measure adopted so far.

As he explained, The problem for Rodrigo Paz is that it ended up generating discontent at both ends of the political spectrum. On the one hand, conservative and right-wing sectors consider that the reforms were too timid and that There was no real change in the economic model inherited from the MAS governments. On the other hand, union sectors and supporters of Evo Morales They reject the economic adjustment and the increase in fuel prices.

Archondo stressed that The protests cannot be attributed solely to Evism. He pointed out that union organizations such as the COB and peasant sectors, especially in La Paz, are also distanced from the Government and actively participate in the mobilizations.

The analyst described a country divided into two types of opposition: a more radicalized one in the highlands and the Bolivian westwhere the blockages are concentrated, and a more moderate one in the east and the citieswhich demands deeper economic reforms and a clearer change of course.

In his opinion, President Paz’s main dilemma will be to decide if he continues trying to maintain a center position or if he chooses to definitively break with the economic model that predominated in Bolivia. during the last two decades.

Illegal economies involved

For the political analyst Ricardo Calla Ortega protests respond to a “multi-actor dynamic” against the Paz government and it is not only a strategy promoted by Morales.

As explained to The CommerceMorales maintains a capacity for union mobilization in peasant and coca growing sectors, especially in Cochabamba, La Paz and Oruro, where it retains influence through rural union networks.

This structure participates in the blockades that affect the route between La Paz, Oruro and Cochabamba, although Calla clarified that the former president no longer has the political or electoral weight of previous years.

The analyst stated that Interests linked to drug trafficking, illegal mining and smuggling also operate behind the protests. sectors that — according to what he said — seek to destabilize the Government because they feel threatened by the actions of Rodrigo Paz against criminal and drug trafficking networks. He pointed out that drug cartels would be financing mobilizations and strengthening blockades in regions such as Chapare, the north of La Paz and areas near El Alto.

Calla considered that some analyzes exaggerate Morales’ role by presenting the former president as the main person responsible for the crisis. In his opinion, Evo is just “one of the actors” within a broader scenario of crossed interests that are trying to generate social upheaval in Bolivia.

Despite the tension, the analyst estimated that the conflict remains geographically limited – mainly in La Paz, Oruro and Cochabamba – and that, for now, it does not seem to have enough strength to trigger a major political crisis or put the Government at immediate risk.