Natanz and Dimona attacks: why they raise the risk of a further escalation in the war in Iran

On Saturday, Iran denounced an American-Israeli attack against the uranium enrichment complex Natanz. She said she was hit Fuel Enrichment Plant.

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The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) reported that, after carrying out technical and specialized evaluations in Natanz, no release of radioactive materials was detected.

The facilities of Natanz They had already been hit by bombing on the fourth day of the war that began on February 28.

Furthermore, in June of last year, during the so-called 12 day warIsrael also bombed the Fuel Enrichment Plant Natanz.

As a result of that attack, the building was practically destroyed and the underground rooms that housed centrifuges were seriously damaged, as stated at the time by the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi.

During the same 12-day war, The United States hit the Natanz underground facilities with bunker buster bombs, probably decimating what was left.

In reprisal to what happened on Saturday, Iran attacked Dimona, the city where Israel’s main nuclear facility is located.

A missile, which was not intercepted by Israeli defense systems, fell directly to the ground, injuring 47 people, the EFE agency reported.

The nuclear reactor is located about 13 kilometers southeast of Dimona.

After these events, the WHO warned on Sunday that The war “has reached a dangerous phase.”

“Targeted attacks against nuclear facilities pose a growing threat to public health and environmental safety,” added the organization’s director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The institution He urgently called on the parties in conflict to “exercise maximum military restraint.” and avoid any action that could trigger nuclear incidents.”

A higher risk phase in the war

For Francesco Tucciprofessor of Political Science and International Relations at the UPC, The attacks on Natanz and the Iranian response in Dimona must be read as “reciprocal messages” linked to the nuclear program of both countriesand as a sign that the war has entered a stage of greater risk.

Tucci stated that Dimona maintains an enormous symbolic load because historically it has been associated with Israeli nuclear development, while Natanz is part of the core of the Iranian atomic program.

The analyst maintained that hitting or rubbing these types of facilities not only has a military value, but also a political and psychological one.

He added that the attack on Natanz doesn’t look like one escalationbut part of a planningof the objectives set by Israel and the United States since before the war “to degrade Iran’s missile and military capabilities, as well as affect or end its nuclear program.”

In parallel, he warned that the situation becomes even more complex due to the contradictory signals about a possible negotiation promoted by donald trumpdenied by Iranand by the differences in approach between Washington and Israel regarding the ultimate objectives of the war.

Tucci also referred to the impact humanitarian of war, with complaints about air pollution in areas of Iran following Israeli attacks on energy infrastructure such as fuel depots, and warns that, amidst crossed versions, propaganda and fog of war, it is increasingly difficult to verify what is really happening on the ground.

If there was a leak uranium enriched to 60% like the one Iran possessesthe main risk would not be that a “nuclear explosion” would occur, but rather a radiological and chemical contamination in the affected area.

The IAEA explained last year, after the attacks on Natanz, that within the facility there could be dispersal of uranium hexafluoride, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluorideand warned that the radiation from these compounds – especially from alpha particles – becomes dangerous if inhaled or ingested.

The problem, furthermore, is not only radiological: the chemical toxicity of uranium, whether natural, depleted or enriched, is essentially the same, and organizations such as the WHO point out that it can especially affect kidneyswhile the uranium hexafluoride and its decomposition products can seriously irritate the respiratory tract, eyes and skin.

The importance of Natanz and Dimona

Natanz houses one of the main facilities of uranium enrichment of Iran and is considered a key piece of its nuclear program.

In Natanz there are thousands of centrifuges used to process uranium, that can serve both purposes civilians as for military if the enrichment level increases.

Its importance for Tehran lies in the fact that it symbolizes its technological capacity, its autonomy in the face of Western pressure and a central part of its negotiation and deterrence power in the Middle East.

It is located about 220 kilometers south of Tehran and It has underground and surface laboratories.

Before the war, the IAEA stated that Iran used advanced centrifuges there to enrich uranium up to 60%very close to the 90% necessary to manufacture nuclear weapons. It is presumed that some of this material was in the facilities when the entire complex was attacked in June of last year.

The nuclear power plant Dimonaknown today officially as the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Centeris a facility located in the Negev desertnear the city of Dimonaand has been considered for decades the core of the Israeli nuclear program.

Although Israel formally presents it as a research center, analysts and specialized organizations historically link the plant with the production of fissile material and the development of its strategic nuclear capacity.

On the nuclear issue, Israel keeps the secrecy and a deliberate policy of ambiguity.

Dimona into a key symbol of its deterrence, its national security and its strategic advantage in the Middle East.

Israel has never claimed to possess the atomic bomb.. However, widely cited estimates, such as those of SIPRI, They estimate that the country has about 80 nuclear weapons.

Unlike Iran, Israel is not a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), so it is not inspected.

Thus, this position allows Israel maintain its nuclear security strategy without the restrictions or mandatory inspections that the treaty imposes on its members.