4 ways Iran could attack Israel in revenge for killing Hamas leader

In an unprecedented attack, on April 13 Iran launched dozens of drones and ballistic missiles towards Israel in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of their consulate in Syria who killed two generals of the Revolutionary GuardIt was a controlled action that left no fatalities and was intended to demonstrate that the Islamic Republic can respond to Israel and make known the capacity of its missiles and drones.

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On Wednesday, Iranthe Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah They accused Israel of the murder of Haniyehon whom the Hebrew State has not commented. His death came hours after an attack claimed by Israel killed the military chief of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukrnear Beirut.

On Monday, Iran says it has the “legal right” to punish Israel for Haniyeh’s assassination.

“We consider our right to defend our national security, sovereignty and territorial integrity as an incontestable right,” said Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Naser Kanani.

What might Iran’s retaliation look like?

According to Institute for the Study of War (ISW)it is likely that Iran and his Axis of Resistance (Syria, Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Houthis of Yemen) carry out a large-scale coordinated drone and missile attack against IsraelThis would be one of the most dangerous courses of action the Islamic Republic could take, the analysis notes.

He ISW He also notes that Iran could modify the April 2024 attack pattern in at least four ways:

• 1.- Increase the volume of projectiles fired
• 2.- Increase the number of targets inside Israel
• 3.- Order simultaneous attacks against US forces especially in eastern Syria,
• 4.- The retaliation could last several days.

All of this with the aim of inflicting serious damage on Israel.

According to the ISW, Iranian state media reported on August 4 that Iran and the Axis of Resistance will carry out a “quadrilateral operation” against Israel. That operation would involve Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran-backed Iraqi militias.

Iranian state media added that Hezbollah seeks to attack Israel in retaliation for the killing of its military chief Fuad Shukr, while the Houthis seek to retaliate for the Israel Defense Forces airstrike (FDI) on July 20 that hit Houthi military targets in al Hudaydah, Yemen.

Also, Akram al Kaabi, the leader of the Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujabaposted an image on August 4 indicating his intention to participate in an attack against Israel.

Iranian state media and officials also have called for senior Israeli officials to be targeted as part of retaliation.

Iran has rejected calls from Western and Arab countries to moderate its response to the killing of Haniyeh.

Israel could end up facing three war fronts

The international analyst Roberto Heimovits He believes that there is a different scenario compared to April, because that time it was about Iranian generals of the Revolutionary Guard killed in the attack, an action by Israel that directly affected Iranian power. He indicates that although Haniyeh He was not an Iranian official, His death affects something that in international relations is as important as power: prestige and credibility.

“Haniyeh He was Hamas’ number one, he was a very important official guest of Iran, he had met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, and his assassination in Tehran is a very big blow to Iran’s prestige and credibility. That is why it is quite likely that they will launch a retaliatory attack.”notes Heimovits to El Comercio.

The internationalist says that Iran can directly attack Israeldo it through their satellites, or jointly. He adds that it could be a large-scale missile attack like in April against a large military base, trying to cause a lot of damage, or It may be an indiscriminate action against Israeli cities.

“But be careful that Iran needs to carefully calibrate its responsebecause if you go overboard, then Israel would find the pretext to strike the Iranian military nuclear program which is already close to enriching uranium for two atomic bombs, and without nuclear weapons Iran has no significant power in the Middle East.”he points out Heimovits.

As for itself Israel can face three war scenarios at once: war in Gaza, escalation with Iran and a possible war with Hezbollah, Heimovits indicates that it will be difficult to fight on all those fronts at the same time, “But it can be said that the country is much better prepared now to fight on several fronts than it was on October 7 last year, when it was surprised by Hamas. Israel has trained its reserves, has invested a lot of its resources in replenishing its arsenal and perhaps beyond whether it is in condition, it would have no choice but to fight on several fronts. It should be remembered that Iran is Israel’s mortal enemy. The Iranian authorities have directly called, several times, for the destruction of Israel, that is why if there is a major escalation, I insist that it will probably be a disaster.” Israel decide to hit Iran at the key point of its power: its nuclear program.”

Heimovits highlights that lately Israel has counterattacked and in a single month he has killed Hamas’ number two in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah’s number two in Beirut and Hamas’ number one abroad.. “Israel has not managed to strike such a blow against its enemies in years, so it is probably much more confident than before and that would give it the morale to face a war on several fronts.”

How is the United States preparing?

On Friday, USA reported the Transfer of a squadron of fighter aircraft to the Middle East and said he will maintain a aircraft carrier in the region, reinforcing its military presence to defend Israel of the possible attack of Iran and its allies. Washington is also seeking to protect its soldiers deployed in the area.

According to a Pentagon statement, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the aircraft carrier strike group USS Abraham Lincoln is headed to the Middle East to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which is in the Gulf of Oman but is scheduled to return to the United States.

Also The deployment of cruisers and destroyers capable of countering ballistic missiles was ordered additional weapons to Europe and the Middle East and is taking steps to send more weapons, the Pentagon said.

The United States did not say where the squadron of fighter jets would come from or where it would be based in the Middle East.

According to Univision, The Pentagon has options to provide Israel with additional defense against ground-based ballistic missiles, As the Patriot or the terminal high altitude area defense system, known as THAADwhich launch interceptor missiles from specialized mobile launch systems on trailers.