US Elections 2024: Who would replace Biden if he decides to give up his candidacy?

LOOK: Who will give more? Biden, Trump and the millions at stake in the election campaign

The issue, unprecedented in American political history because it occurred less than a month before the Democratic National Convention, gained strength after the president’s very poor performance during the debate he held with his Republican rival. Donald Trump.

In the televised meeting that the two held three weeks ago, Biden could be seen disoriented and having difficulty responding. Since then, alarms have gone off in the blue tent, a situation that has worsened over the weeks in which the ruler accumulated other impasses such as confusing the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, with his Russian counterpart and greatest enemy, Vladimir Putin, or forgetting the name of his Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, during an interview and calling him “the black guy”.

As these episodes have piled up, the feeling has also grown among Democrats that Biden would no longer be able to beat the media-savvy Trump, who has also enjoyed a peak in popularity after surviving an attempt on his life.

In response, various figures have asked that he give up his post to another candidate.

“The options are limited and quite unfavorable for the Democrats in terms of what would happen. It takes a long time for a campaign to get organized, just from a logistical point of view a change of candidate is huge. Also, for technical reasons, they must have the candidate ready by August 7 because in Ohio the ballots begin to be printed. There will be an interim vote before that day to decide whether Biden continues or who will be the candidate, they cannot leave aside a key state because otherwise they will have lost the election.”, he explains to Trade political analyst, UCLA professor and CNN en Español commentator Octavio Pescador.

But who could take the reins of the Democratic nomination just one month before the Democratic Convention and less than four months before the election?

– Harris, the first choice –

“If an expedited selection process is chosen, Biden’s delegates will have to give up on him and go for another candidate, who will have to get the support of 1,968 delegates. That’s why the primaries are held because it takes months to do so, here they would have to fit the whole process into a week.“, says Pescador.

A YouGov poll this week found that 79% of Democrats would support current Vice President Kamala Harris if Biden decided to step aside for the nomination.

The reasons behind the preference for Harris are many, starting with the position of vice president which naturally places her as a replacement for the head of state in any eventuality, but also from the logistical side because the 59-year-old politician could benefit from the 91 million dollars of funds that they have managed to raise in the campaign where she also appears as Biden’s running mate.

On the other hand, an Ipsos/Reuters poll published last Tuesday gives Harris a voting intention of 42%, just one point below Trump and within the study’s margin of error, which is estimated at 3.5%.

Before becoming vice president, Harris was a senator and attorney general of California; however, the biggest obstacle she could encounter on her way would be the low popularity levels that led her to abandon her presidential aspirations in the previous election.

“By lordship and strategic terms, it would be Kamala Harris’ turn. But Representative Adam Smith, who was one of the first to ask for Biden’s departure, has already said that despite supporting Kamala Harris, she will have to earn the vote of the delegates. In other words, they would not consider her an automatic pass. And that is because Harris does not enjoy the greatest popularity in all Democratic sectors, she does not have much charisma and some do not see real options for her to beat Trump.“, says the specialist.

Faced with this situation, the Argentine political analyst based in the United States, Hernán Molina, commented in a conversation with the program Tenemos que Hablar de Trade that Biden could even choose to leave the presidency before his term ends and pave the way for an eventual replacement for Harris to feel more natural.

“It is a possibility. If Biden claims health problems that prevent him from completing his term, Kamala Harris would be sworn in as the next president. That would help make her almost automatically the Democratic Party’s nominee. Another option is for her to renounce her candidacy and release her delegates at the National Convention. In any case, both options are difficult to take. It is already hard to renounce your candidacy because your party asks you to and it would be even harder to do so for the presidency, but it is still an option.“, the analyst elaborated in a later conversation with Trade.

– Other options –

With Biden announcing that he will resume his campaign next week – he is recovering from a COVID-19 diagnosis – and Harris accumulating antibodies despite her status as natural successor, a range of options has opened up as potential presidential candidates and running mates in the event of the current vice president being appointed.

“First, there is Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has already campaigned with Biden, has a good presence and represents a crucial state because it is part of the Industrial Corridor where Trump needs votes and decided the victories of 2016 and 2020. She would be a good choice for that reason, but it must also be taken into account that Democrats cannot sacrifice the Hispanic or African-American vote.“, explains Pescador.

According to the analyst, the Democrats could not lose the support of these electoral groups, especially because of their ability to define the contest in at least 3 of the 6 key states still in dispute for November.

American media have also echoed the possibility of figures such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro; California Governor Gavin Newsom; or current Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg accompanying Harris as vice president.

“After Whitmer, Newsom and Shapiro appear as options. There is also talk that Buttigieg would be a good choice for vice president because he would attract the young and LGBTQ vote. It sounds like an attractive strategy, but we are now facing a more conservative electoral cycle. I don’t think they are going to risk presenting a ticket that feeds the conservative discourse that the Republicans have presented. I am inclined to think that they will choose a more neutral profile, applying the current ticket of one African-American candidate and one white candidate. Fisherman analyzes.

In any case, the expert prefers to be cautious about the decision that the Democrats are going to adopt because although the scenario seems complicated for Biden, Trump’s speech on Thursday 18th during the Republican Convention could have lit a small light of hope in the blue tent.

“The convention was a success, but the speech was not. The Republican Party organized it very well and the path was smoothed for them, but Trump decided not to take a conciliatory attitude but instead gave a speech aimed at his hardest-line supporters. Trump feels that he has the entire party under control, and he does, but to win the presidency he will need the vote of the independents and for now he has not achieved it. There are still many minorities who would vote for a ghost rather than for Trump, especially because of the legal attacks they have suffered from the more conservative side.he comments.

“For me, Biden has a better chance of staying today than on Wednesday. Much will depend on whether the most influential Democratic figures, such as Pelosi or Schumer, reconsider their position as well.”, adds the CNN en Español commentator.