How climate change is causing more (and increasingly dangerous) flight turbulence

The plane fell violently 54 meters in 4.6 seconds. One person died and more than 100 were injured, dozens of them ending up in an intensive care unit (ICU). It happened on a flight Singapore Airlines which on May 21 covered the route between London and Singapore. The investigation has determined that the ship suffered “rapid changes in gravitational force” when it entered a zone of jet stream turbulence.

Incidents of this type are increasingly common in aviation, and the force of turbulence is increasing, according to scientific research that attributes this phenomenon to climate change that the planet experiences.

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The Boeing 777 Singapore Airlineswith 211 passengers and 18 crew on board, had to make an emergency landing in bangkokafter being hit by turbulence while flying over Myanmar.

A 73-year-old British man died of a suspected heart attack and the passengers who They were not wearing their seat belts. They ended up injured when they were thrown and crashed into the cabin. As of Wednesday, 26 people remained hospitalized in bangkok.

More serious injuries include damage to the spine or spinal cord, injuries to the skull, and damage to bones or internal organs.

“Rapid changes in gravitational force over a 4.6-second duration resulted in an altitude loss of 178 feet (54 meters). “This sequence of events likely caused the injuries to the crew and passengers,” says the report published Wednesday by the Singapore Ministry of Transportwho carried out the research with the collaboration of the United States National Transportation Safety Boardthe US Federal Aviation Administration and the company Boeing.

According to the investigation, cited by the AP agency, the plane was passing over southern Myanmar at 37,000 feet (11,277 meters) when it began to experience vibrations due to changes in gravitational force. Then he Boeing It ascended to an altitude of up to 37,362 feet (11,387 meters) and increased speed possibly due to an updraft. The plane’s autopilot then attempted to tilt the craft down to its previous altitude.

“The plane experienced a rapid change in G (gravitational force)…this likely caused the unbelted occupants to become airborne” before falling back down as the craft rose and fell, the ministry said. “The rapid changes in G during the 4.6 second duration resulted in an altitude drop of 178 feet…this sequence of events likely caused injuries to the crew and passengers.”

According to the black box recordings, during the turbulence a pilot was heard shouting to warn that the fasten seat belt sign had come on. The recorded data indicated that the pilots manually controlled the plane for 21 seconds to stabilize it before re-engaging the autopilot.

Almost an hour later, the plane made a normal and controlled descent into Bangkok, encountering no more turbulence.

Increased turbulence and climate change

The turbulence They are a frequent phenomenon on flights. But what happened with Singapore AirlinesIt is known as clear air turbulence (CATfor its acronym in English) or jet stream it’s a extremely rare and dangerous phenomenon, according to he BBC Weather Service.

Simon King, of the BBC Weather Service and former member of the Royal Air Force, explained that most of the turbulence is produce in the cloudswhere there is ascending and descending wind currents. They are usually relatively mild, although in larger clouds air movements can be more chaotic and generate moderate or even severe turbulence.

However, the clear air turbulence They occur in clear skies, and therefore cannot be seen in advance.

BBC explained that this type of turbulence occurs around the jet streama “river” of rapidly flowing air typically found at an elevation between 12,000 meters and 18,000 meters.

Aviation academic and commercial pilot Guy Gratton told the BBC that it is easy for there to be a speed difference of 160 km/h, between the air in the jet stream and the surrounding air. That friction around the jet stream between slower and faster air is what causes turbulence.

Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, in the United Kingdom, stressed to the BBC the importance of investigating the phenomenon, since the climate change is increasing the frequency with which it is produced.

“I have been studying turbulence for the last 20 years and in the last decade we have gathered evidence that the increase in severe turbulence has grown by 55%”assured the researcher.

“And, in the future, we could see them double or triple in some places in the world by the 2060s, due to climate change,” he noted.

He recommended that Passengers must keep their seat belts fastened throughout the flight.

Decrease in flight times

The portal Earth.com cited a recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change that reveals important data about the future of jet streams.

He indicated that for every degree Celsius increase in global temperatures, the fastest winds in the jet streams at higher levels they could accelerate by approximately 2%. This rate of increase is notably greater than the average increase in wind speed, which is estimated to be 2.5 times slower.

“They are likely to contribute to a decrease in flight timesan increase in clear-air turbulence and a possible increase in adverse weather conditions,” said Professor Tiffany Shaw of the University of Chicago, who led the study.

High economic cost

For its part, National Geographic cited research published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters where it is stated that Between 1979 and 2020, total turbulence on routes over the North Atlantic increased by 55%. He attributed that growth to climate change.

“Everything seems to indicate that, As the Earth warms and experiences changes in its climate, airflow patterns and atmospheric conditions are changing significantly.. Although they are not a safety risk, increased turbulence has been another of the consequences of this process, which, in addition, are expected to continue growing in number towards the middle of the century,” said National Geographic.

“It appears that as Earth’s temperatures rise due to the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, air currents become more aggressive“Hot air tends to rise and, being at a higher temperature, it moves at high speed, moving through the troposphere and altering the movement and trajectory of airplanes during their flight,” the magazine added.

In addition to the aforementioned consequences for passengers, the increase in turbulence has a high economic cost for airlines, indicates National Geographic. He indicated that the plane may suffer certain damage in violent weather situations, and even more so if it cannot be anticipated, such as wear or detachment of small elements of the fuselage. The repair of these parts for the conservation of the airplane and the security of future flights represents a considerable expense.

It must also be taken into account that the flight delays They can affect and be a great inconvenience for passengers. Avoiding turbulence zones will mean greater fuel consumption, which will result in greater pollution of the planet.

According to a 2021 report from the US National Transportation Safety Board, turbulence accounted for 37.6% of all accidents on larger commercial airlines between 2009 and 2018. The Federal Aviation Administration reported that there were 146 serious injuries due to turbulence between 2009 and 2021.